Will Biden and Trump debate? 

By Colby Etherton 

It’s been a mainstay in politics for decades, going back to 1960: the general election presidential debates. We typically see the Democratic and Republican candidates debate one another three times in an election cycle. Though we are in peculiar times, and whether or not Biden and Trump, the presumptive nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties, respectively, will debate is something of a mystery. 

One can point to Trump missing out on every Republican primary debate this year and last year, along with his ongoing legal issues. Currently, Trump is mandated to attend court hearings pertaining to alleged falsifying of financial records and hush-money payments he made to adult film star Stormy Daniels. Prosecutors in the ongoing trial say that Trump’s hush money payments were an attempt at influencing the 2016 election, with the goal of silencing people from speaking out about damning information about Trump. These court hearings are keeping him off the campaign trail and may put into question his attendance at the presidential debates as well.T 

Biden and Trump may not want to debate one another if they calculate that they have more to lose than gain in doing so, especially if one or both candidates perceive that they have electoral momentum over the other. Typically, candidates that are polling ahead of their opponent do not want to debate, as it opens up the possibility of a momentum shift or a gaffe on the leading candidate’s part. 

Notably, the 2020 debates between the same two candidates were highly contentious, with the second debate implementing their mics being turned off after they were done speaking due to the chaotic nature of the first debate, where the candidates (particularly Trump) talked over one another. There were three scheduled debates that year, though only two happened as Trump was diagnosed with Covid around when the second of their three debates was supposed to occur, and he refused to debate virtually. 

The election is shaping up to be razor-thin between Biden and Trump, with both candidates regularly polling closely together. Biden has narrowed the lead Trump had in the polls since both candidates became their respective parties’ nominees, though unpredictable variables like third-party candidates can swing the election in either direction. A recent April 12-16 NBC poll showed Trump with a slight lead over Biden, but when introducing third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Biden had a slight lead over Trump — defying conventional wisdom, as it’s been thought that RFK Jr. would likely take more votes from Biden.