A close up of a person wearing a suit

A Midterms Recap | So much for the red… droplet 

By Colby Etherton

For months, the narrative on the midterms was that Democrats were facing an inevitable shellacking. Not just because of historical precedent (which points to how rare it is for Presidents to gain seats in Congress during their first midterm cycle, with few exceptions — such as Republicans expanding on their majority in 2002 under George W. Bush, and in 1934 when Franklin D. Roosevelt gained seats in both chambers, as well), but because of the current climate. Although energy costs are lowering, they’re still on the high end, and inflation has been a serious problem for over a year. Harkening back to Bill Clinton’s famous 1992 campaign’s line, “It’s the economy, stupid,†the state of the economy tends to be what makes or breaks an election. Given this history, with rampant inflation existing simultaneously in our current political zeitgeist, it seemed all but inevitable that Democrats would experience a defeat akin to, say, 2010 — the midterm election in Barack Obama’s first term. 

Yet, the red wave that pundits and politicians expected to arrive to shore didn’t happen, and if anything, the red wave resembled a red droplet. It’s a midterm cycle that has defied history, and although Republicans have taken the House of Representatives, they did so by the slimmest of margins, and Democrats ended up holding their own across the board.  

Not only did Democrats end up holding on to the Senate seats they occupied that were expected to be toss-ups (Arizona, Nevada), but they also flipped a Senate seat in Pennsylvania where John Fetterman won the seat over Dr. Mehmet Oz by nearly five points. These wins guarantee that Democrats maintain control of the Senate with at least a 50-50 margin, though Georgia is yet again going to a run-off as determined by Georgia election law, as neither Democratic incumbent Rev. Raphael Warnock nor Republican challenger Hershel Walker hit 50 percent of the vote. Potentially, Democrats can expand on their Senate control and pick up an additional seat depending on how that run-off goes. Without a popular governor like Brian Kemp on the ballot to help Walker over the finish line, incumbent Rev. Warnock should be a slight favorite. 

Democrats did better in gubernatorial races than expected, as well. Arizona’s race for governor was expected to be close between Secretary of State Katie Hobbs and former TV anchor Kari Lake (who leaned heavily into the election denialist rhetoric that Trump falsely espoused in 2020), but Hobbs narrowly eked out a win and flipped the state. Maryland and Massachusetts also flipped to Democrat-controlled governorships, while Republicans flipped just one governorship in Nevada. Republicans for a long time have played the state-level game of politics better than Democrats, controlling most state legislatures, but this midterm cycle showed that there may be cracks starting to form in their state-level game. Democrats flipped the state House and state Senate of Michigan, the state House of Pennsylvania, and the state Senate of Minnesota. 

When it comes to the House of Representatives, while there are still several races that have yet to be called, Republicans will have flipped nine seats, at most. In contrast with the forty-plus that were flipped for Democrats in 2018, it’s staggeringly low. With a political climate that seemed to favor Republicans, why wasn’t there a red wave? The answer seems to be a mix of anger on the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v Wade, poor candidate quality, and Trumpism/election denialism showing itself to be a toxic brand for the average voter. One must wonder whether or not it’s a glimmer of hope that Trumpism is waning, as 2018, 2020, and 2022 have either been blowouts against Republicans or very lukewarm gains. 

This election cycle has shown what smart campaigning, strong candidate quality, and focus on issues can do for Democrats, even when they’re facing challenging headwinds. Yet, we are still headed for political gridlock, as Republicans control the House. With a majority that slim, it will potentially give Republican House members who are anti-democratic and more extreme in their ideology more outsized power in their party. 

Curiously, these midterms results call into question whether President Biden’s prospects on campaigning for reelection have improved. In the political arena, it has been a question for a while now as to whether or not he would run for a second term, and if Democrats had received a shellacking in the midterms, there might’ve been serious pressure not to. Perhaps his decision will be influenced by better-than-expected results. He has described himself as a “transitional†president, and time has yet to tell just what exactly that means. 

Related Posts

About author

Related Posts

Comments are closed.

Do not miss