Trump Holds Narrow Lead Going into Election 

By Colby Etherton 

We’re nearly halfway into 2024, and as such, the presidential election is mere months away. In five months, the rematch between President Biden and former president Trump will finally come to a head. Both candidates have agreed to two debates with one another, breaking from tradition as candidates have for decades done three debates. Notably, in 2020 there were two presidential debates as Trump tested positive for Covid and one of the debates was cancelled. 

Polling has suggested that this election will be quite close. However, Trump has generally maintained a slight edge of a few points across battleground states that will likely decide the election: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Biden won six of these seven states in 2020, with the exception of North Carolina. Yet, some polling suggests Biden fares better among likely voters. Biden has struggled as he’s found himself losing support from voters of color and young voters that propelled him to the White House in 2020, as the economy and his handling of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza remain critically important issues. 

This doesn’t take into account the potential for third party candidates to tip the scales, as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornell West are running as Independents and Jill Stein is running under the Green Party. Kennedy’s inclusion is murky as polls aren’t clear on whom he pulls more support away from between Trump and Biden. West and Stein are progressive candidates and in theory would pull more support away from Biden. 

Biden will likely seek to make protecting democracy a central narrative of the election, as well as the Republicans’ stripping away of abortion rights, though voters remain unsatisfied with the economy as inflation remains a pressing issue and prices are still higher than they were before the pandemic. There is a debate to be had here on whether a lot of the higher prices we’re seeing are actually inflation-induced or if it’s simply companies charging more for their goods because they can. 

Both candidates remain deeply unpopular and while Biden has a cash advantage, most polling at the present indicate he’s slightly trailing the former president. The election being a referendum on Trump (much like it was in 2020) likely won’t be a narrative that will be successful again, even as Trump faces a host of criminal charges involving hush money payments, election interference and not turning over classified documents. 

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